Race, Class, and Marriage in the United States, 1960-2019.
I assess Wilson’s (1987) argument that the race differential in the frequency of marriage results from a shortage of marriageable men in the African-American community. Previous investigators have approached this problem by measuring the local availability of eligible male marriage partners for Black women. These studies have found a comparatively small but significant impact of the availability of marriageable Black men on Black women’s marriage rates. They conclude that only a minority of the race difference in marriage can be ascribed to race differences in the availability of marriageable men.
My analysis simplifies the problem by evaluating the effects of economic characteristics of White and Black men on their own marriage behavior since 1960. I use novel measures of marriage rates together with decomposition methods to assess the impact of income, occupation, employment status, and institutional residence on race differences in first marriage rates among men. The results show that in the mid-to-late 20th century, race differences in economic composition can explain differences in marriage rates. Indeed, among Black and White men in similar circumstances, Blacks married more often. In the 21st century the effects of male circumstances on race differences in marriage rates has diminished but remains substantial.
This research strongly supports Wilson’s central argument: In the 20th century, Black men with similar economic and demographic characteristics as Whites—measured by income, occupation, employment, and incarceration—had higher marriage rates. The importance of male economic characteristics for marriage rates has diminished over the past six decades; this probably reflects the decline of male-breadwinner family and the rising importance of women’s economic resources.
Steven Ruggles is the Regents Professor of History and Population Studies at the University of Minnesota
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